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Dave Meats
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Morningstar | Denbury and Penn Virginia Terminate Merger Agreement. See Updated Analyst Note from 26 Mar 2019

Denbury's stock has traded sideways since the firm announced last week that the pending merger with Penn Virginia has been terminated. And there's no change to our fair value estimate, either (still in line with the market at $2 per share). In the release management explained that the transaction was unlikely to receive the necessary approvals from Penn Virginia shareholders. Difficult market conditions were also cited as a concern, though this seems counter-intuitive (lower oil prices make Penn Virginia's assets worth less and should increase the probability of shareholder acceptance, all else equal).

Accordingly, we have reduced our forecasts for Denbury's 2019 production and capital spending to 60 mboe/d and $285 million, respectively (down from 81 mboe/d and $575 million). These estimates are consistent with guidance for Denbury's standalone operations, issued after the fourth quarter of 2018. The reduction in net asset value offsets the agreed consideration of $1.3 billion that will no longer be paid.
Underlying
Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company's operations are focused in two main operating areas: the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions. The company's properties with proved and producing reserves in the Gulf Coast region are situated in Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and in the Rocky Mountain region are situated in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Provider
Morningstar
Morningstar

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.

Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.

We have operations in 27 countries.

Analysts
Dave Meats

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