Morningstar | Lilly's Investor Day Reinforces Steady Outlook for Current and Pipeline Drugs as We Expected
Eli Lilly's investor day provided 2019 guidance and updates to the pipeline that largely matched our expectations, and we don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate or moat rating. We continue to view Lilly as fairly valued. Further, the company's strong strides in research and development continue to support our wide moat rating, which is heavily based on the ability to create the next generation of innovative drugs that carry strong pricing power.Overall, we view Lilly's strong positioning in diabetes, pain, and immunology will be supported by several upcoming data points that should lead to an earnings per share compound annual growth rate of over 10% over the next three years. In diabetes, we expect Trulicity's label to gain positive cardiovascular data in 2019, which will help defend the franchise from Novo's competitive drugs. Longer term, we expect the GIP/GLP-1 drug tirzepatide to provide differentiated efficacy for diabetics with the drug's potential launch in late 2022.
In pain, Lilly holds three new blockbusters. The recently launched CGRP migraine drug Emgality is in a competitive class, but the group as a whole is seeing rapid uptake. We expect acute migraine drug lasmiditan to gain approval in 2019 based on strong late-stage data. Also, we expect positive phase III efficacy data for NGF pain drug tanezumab in 2019 with an acceptable side effect profile.
Turning to immunology, we expect continued growth for Taltz and Olumiant, driven by new indications and studies. A head-to-head study of Taltz versus J&J's Tremfya should report in 2019 and we expect the 12-week endpoint should enable Taltz to show superiority due to the fast onset of action of Taltz. As a reminder a similar drug to Taltz (Novartis' Cosentyx, another IL-17) failed in efficacy versus Tremfya (IL-23), but the timing of the endpoint was 48 weeks. Also, we expect positive data for Olumiant in atopic dermatitis in 2019, setting up another growth avenue for the drug.
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in a single business segment: human pharmaceutical products. The company's human pharmaceutical products include: diabetes and other endocrinology products, immunology products, neuroscience products, oncology products, and other products. The company's diabetes and other endocrinology products include: Baqsimi? and Basaglar?. The company's immunology products include: Olumiant? and Taltz?. The company's neuroscience products include: Cymbalta? and Emgality?. The company's oncology products include: Alimta?, Cyramza?, Erbitux? and Verzenio?. The company's other products include: Cialis?.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
We have operations in 27 countries.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.