Ferguson Is Increasingly Becoming a Pure-Play U.S. Distributor; Shares Fully Priced
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Ferguson to GBX 4,300 per share from GBX 3,400 due to three factors: rolling our model forward to fiscal 2018, incorporating our coveragewide expectation of a U.S. federal statutory tax rate reduction from 35% to 25% in 2018, and adjusting for the sale of the margin-dilutive Nordic business. Our EBIT forecasts in U.S. dollar terms for fiscal 2018 and 2019 are 1% and 4% below consensus. We continue to see the shares as overvalued, with the current sh...
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