Morningstar | Few Surprises in FMC's Detailed Earnings; Maintaining $92 FVE as Shares Slightly Undervalued. See Updated Analyst Note from 13 Feb 2019
FMC reported detailed fourth-quarter earnings that were slightly above our expectations as growth in agricultural solutions and lithium drove adjusted earnings per share 54% above the fourth quarter of 2017 to $1.69. On Feb. 1, FMC reported high-level 2018 results, guiding to fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.62-$1.67. In its detailed earnings release, the company maintained its 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.55-$5.75. We think this range is achievable and forecast FMC to end up toward the upper end of management's guidance range. Having updated our model to incorporate the detailed earnings figures, we maintain our $92 fair value estimate for FMC. Our narrow moat rating is also unchanged.In agricultural solutions, revenue grew 18% year on year on a pro forma basis to $1.1 billion, driven primarily by higher prices in Latin America. We forecast profits in FMC's agricultural solutions business to grow at a high-single-digit rate through 2022 as the company launches three new crop chemical products and continues to benefit from current crop chemical "blockbuster" products Rynaxypyr and Cyazypyr. When Rynaxypyr goes off patent in 2022 in its first major markets, including China, India, and the United States, we forecast declining sales and margin compression for Rynaxypyr, which will weigh on the entire business. However, we eventually expect profits to grow in our midcycle forecast (2028) as FMC will launch six new patented crop chemicals over the next decade that will nearly replace Rynaxypyr and Cyazypyr.
In lithium, adjusted EBITDA grew 5%, excluding stand-alone costs, as higher volume and favorable currency movements were partially offset by higher operating costs. FMC announced it will fully spin off Livent on March 1. Until the spin-off is complete, our FMC fair value estimate will continue to incorporate the value of our $18 fair value estimate for Livent.
FMC is an agricultural sciences company. The company provides solutions to growers around the world with a product portfolio fueled by a discovery and development pipeline in crop protection, plant health, and personnel pest and turf management. This combination of technologies includes insect control products based on Rynaxypyr? and Cyazypyr? active ingredients; Authority?, Boral?, Centium?, Command? and Gamit? branded herbicides; Talstar? and Hero? insecticides; and flutriafol-based fungicides. The company's products are used in agriculture to improve crop yield and quality by controlling a range of insects, weeds and disease, as well as in non-agricultural markets for pest control.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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