LTAP’s Generous Bid for GrainCorp Falls Apart; We Revert to AUD 9.30 Standalone FVE
After months of relative silence, Long-Term Asset Partners has withdrawn its AUD 10.42 per share offer for no-moat GrainCorp. We were never convinced the two parties would end up together. Since its announcement, we had assigned the deal only a 50% probability of success, and moved the likelihood of completion even lower, to 25%, on April 4, following the announced demerger of GrainCorp’s malt business. Removing this probability leads us to revert to our standalone fair value estimate of AUD 9.3...GrainCorp is a food ingredients and agribusiness company. Co. focuses its activities on three main grains (wheat, barley and canola). Co.'s reporting segments are: Storage and Logistics, which include grain receivals, transport, testing, storage of grains and other bulk commodities; Marketing, which markets grain and agricultural products and operates grain pools; Malt, which produces malt products, provides brewing inputs and other malting services, sells farm inputs, and exports malt; and Oils, which includes the processing and crushing of oilseeds. Co. also has a 60.0% joint venture interest in Allied Mills Australia Pty Ltd, a supplier of milled edible flour for human consumption.
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