GWA Remains Overvalued Amid Downside Risk to Housing Starts
We maintain our fair value estimate for narrow-moat-rated GWA Group at AUD 2.20 per share. The shares trade 40% above our fair value estimate, and we believe the market is underestimating the likely impact of falling housing starts, which we expect to decline at a compound annual rate of 0.2% between fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2021. Management has guided for second-half EBIT to be at or slightly ahead of first-half fiscal 2017, although we believe this could be at risk, with April 2017 dwelling app...GWA Group is engaged in the research, design, manufacture, import and marketing of building fixtures and fittings to residential and commercial premises and the distribution of these various products through a range of distribution channels in Australia, New Zealand and selected international markets. Co.'s business segments are: Bathrooms and Kitchens, which includes vitreous china toilet suites, basins, plastic cisterns, tapware, baths, kitchen sinks, laundry tubs, and bathroom accessories; and Door and Access Systems, which includes door locks and levers and supply and maintenance of commercial door systems.
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