Market Under-Rating Proppant Mine-Gate Pricing Recovery, Overrating Proppant Logistics Pricing
Because of U.S. shale's marginal position on the global oil cost curve, shale breakevens are a key determinant of our below-consensus long-term oil price expectation of $55 per barrel West Texas Intermediate. In contrast to others, who point to shale cost reinflation as a key driver of higher oil prices, we think shale cost gains will be more muted. In particular, we forecast frac sand pricing will rise from $90 per ton in 2016 to $112 in 2020, but much below the 2014 peak of $170.We expect fra...
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