Increasing CMB's FVE on CNY Appreciation and Increased Assumptions for Loan Growth and Long-Term NIM
We have increased our fair value estimate for narrow-moat China Merchants Bank to CNY 24 per share from CNY 19 for the bank's A-shares, and HKD 29 from HKD 22 per share for the H-shares. The increase is driven by increased loan growth assumptions and longer-term NIM assumptions, which account for HKD 4.02 of the increase. Chinese yuan appreciation is responsible for HKD 1.32, with the time value of money making up the rest. We still believe CMB is overvalued, with shares trading at a 19% premium...
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