Ocaliva's Safety Profile Continues to Weigh on Intercept After 3Q; No Change to Our $188 FVE
Following Intercept’s third-quarter earnings call we are maintaining our $188 per share fair value estimate, which is primarily driven by probability-weighted expectations of obeticholic acid (OCA) in NASH. We raised our 2017 estimates for Ocaliva/OCA in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) based on healthy third-quarter sales, which was immaterial to our valuation. Intercept’s dependence on the prospect of one drug candidate feeds into our very high uncertainty and no-moat ratings for the company....Intercept Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapeutics to treat progressive non-viral liver diseases. The company's marketed product, Ocaliva? (obeticholic acid or OCA), is an farnesoid X receptor agonist approved in the U.S., the European Union and several other jurisdictions for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis in combination with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in adults with an inadequate response to UDCA or as monotherapy in adults unable to tolerate UDCA. In addition to, the company is developing OCA for multiple indications, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.
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