Morningstar | MOS Updated Star Rating from 07 Mar 2019
On March 7, Mosaic announced it would reduce phosphate production by 300,000 tons in 2019 in a move to support phosphate prices. Accordingly, we've lowered our phosphate production forecast for Mosaic to 8.5 million tons from 8.8 million. However, our $37 per share fair value estimate is unchanged as our reduced phosphate volume forecast is offset by the time value money since our last update. Our no-moat rating is also intact. Mosaic shares fell nearly 4% in response to the news. At current prices, we think Mosaic is beginning to look attractive on a risk adjusted basis.Phosphate prices have declined nearly 15% since the beginning of the year and are now roughly $335 per ton on a NOLA basis. Although the beginning of the year is typically the slowest time for phosphate sales, Mosaic indicated that reduced production would help offset higher inventory levels. We are in favor of the move as we think Mosaic's reduced production should support prices as the North American agriculture inputs market prepares for the spring planting season.
Mosaic tends to act as a rational player in both the potash and phosphate market, adjusting production to support prices. In recent years, the company has reduced its phosphate production to support higher global prices as more low-cost supply has come online from Morocco and the Middle East. Doing so maximizes phosphate profits via higher prices, as Mosaic sits on the upper half of the phosphate cost curve.
Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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