Lumber Tariffs Look Likely Under Trump, but Canfor and West Fraser Remain Undervalued
Following President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Robert Lighthizer as U.S. trade representative, stiff U.S. tariffs on Canadian lumber exports appear highly likely. Our wood product company models now assume a 20% tax on southbound Canadian lumber will be rolled out shortly. Concurrently, we've lowered our near-term forecast for U.S. housing starts, essentially deferring the cyclical peak for wood product company earnings (see our Jan. 18 note "Household Formation Lags Expectations in 2016...
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