Origin is Tracking Well, But Remains Overvalued
No-moat Origin Energy is tracking well in the financial year to date and management reconfirmed fiscal 2018 earnings guidance. We maintain our earnings forecasts and AUD 7.50 fair value estimate. At current prices, we consider the stock overvalued. We remain cautious over Origin's exposure to volatile oil and gas prices combined with still high debt levels. Debt/EBITDA should be around 4 times in fiscal 2018, which is much more aggressive than peer AGL Energy at 1.7 times despite AGL having more...
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