Morningstar | Owens Illinois' Uphill Battle to Achieve Organic Volume Growth Continues; Maintaining $19.50 FVE
Despite management's upbeat commentary surrounding the first quarter, we think organic volume growth will remain a challenge over the coming years rather than being just a transitory issue. A strong dollar further challenged first-quarter results, dragging nearly every segment lower. Management indicated that at recent exchange rates, we should expect $2.92 in adjusted earnings per share for the year as opposed to its $3.00 headline figure. The former strikes us as more reasonable.Despite a subpar start to the year, our downward revision does not warrant a decrease to our $19.50 per share fair value estimate or our narrow-moat rating. Despite today's 8% share price decline, we view the stock as fairly valued.
While we see some room for volume growth in glass containers, we expect them to continue losing share to lighter and more compact packaging choices. Every segment posted a volume decline versus the prior year, weighing on both sales and operating profit. These declines were more than offset by higher prices, but prices were really just boosted by the pass-through of input costs. We expect much of the firm's future growth to come from the costly investment in new furnaces. While it does require heavy capital outlays, we still think these projects are likely economically profitable. They often entail long-term supply agreements and predetermined pricing that allows the firm to slightly out earn its cost of capital.
Across the three segments, margin performance was fairly robust in both Europe and Asia-Pacific but a drag in the Americas. Operating margins for the Americas segment fell more than 3% versus the prior-year period, principally due to higher operating costs. The firm recommissioned a furnace in Brazil and added a furnace in Colombia, which significantly lifted operating costs during the quarter. We think the segment margin should begin to recover over the course of the year as higher prices and falling operating costs buoy segment profitability.
Owens-Illinois is a manufacturer of glass containers. The company has three reportable segments based on its geographic locations: Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The company produces glass containers for alcoholic beverages, including beer, flavored malt beverages, spirits and wine. The company also produces glass packaging for a variety of food items, soft drinks, teas, juices and pharmaceuticals. The company manufactures glass containers in a range of sizes, shapes and colors. The company also provides engineering support for its glass manufacturing operations through facilities located in the U.S., Australia, France, Poland and Peru.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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