Report
Seth Goldstein, CFA
EUR 101.80 For Business Accounts Only

We’ve Lowered Our Long-Term Price Forecast for Phosphate and Medium-Term Price Forecast for Potash

We’ve reduced our outlook for phosphate and potash prices as we expect more new capacity to come on line than we had forecast. Our 2025 phosphate price falls to $360 per metric ton (in real terms), down from $420. In potash, while we still expect a 2025 potash price of $260 per metric ton (in real terms), we don't see meaningful price expansion until after 2020.
Our Mosaic fair value estimate falls to $30 per share from $33. Our Agrium U.S. share class fair value estimate decreases to $110 per s...
Underlying
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan isa fertilizer producer by capacity producing the three primary crop nutrients: potash, nitrogen and phosphate, which is used for agricultural, industrial and animal nutrition purposes. Co.'s potash operations include the mining and production of potash, which is used as fertilizer. Co.'s phosphate operations include the manufacture and sale of solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed and industrial acid, which is used in food products and industrial processes. Co.'s nitrogen operations include production of nitrogen fertilizers and nitrogen feed and industrial products, including ammonia, urea, nitrogen solutions, ammonium nitrate and nitric acid.

Provider
Morningstar
Morningstar

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.

Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.

We have operations in 27 countries.

Analysts
Seth Goldstein, CFA

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