Price Weakness Could Soon See Value Emerging for No-Moat Z Energy, but Hold Fire for Now
Our NZD 7.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Z Energy stands. So too our fiscal 2018 NZD 0.59 EPS forecast. That’s despite the company in January reining-in replacement cost EBITDA guidance by 4-5% to NZD 430 million-NZD 455 million from NZD 445 million-NZD 475 million. The drivers are an approximate NZD 7.0 million impact from outages at the Refinery to Auckland Pipeline and NZD 14-18 million timing related drag on certain commercial contracts for diesel, jet fuel, and bitumen in a rising oil p...
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