Raising Near-Term Bulk Commodity Price Forecasts, but Long-Term Outlook Unchanged
Mined commodities and mining stocks have seen massive gains in 2016. The coking coal price quadrupled, iron ore and thermal coal have doubled, and copper is up about 35% this year. Demand exceeded expectations thanks to China’s debt-fueled fiscal stimulus. With approximately 80% of China’s steel used for investment-oriented activity, steel demand is particularly sensitive to China’s fiscal stimulus. China’s leading share of commodity consumption means relatively small changes in demand have outs...
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