Report
Karen Andersen
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Morningstar | SGEN Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 08 Nov 2018

Adcetris sales this quarter were in line with our expectations at $127 million, a 60% increase from last year. Our full-year expectations of $476 million in Adcetris net product sales is within management's guidance. In September, Adcetris in combination with chemotherapy was approved by Japanese regulators in frontline Hodgkin lymphoma for patients with CD30 expression, triggering a $10 million milestone payment from Takeda. After adjusting for this milestone payment, slightly better-than-expected margins, and the time value of money, we are increasing our fair value estimate to $65 from $61 per share. With Seattle Genetics still relying on one drug and burning cash for research and development, we are maintaining our no-moat rating.

In October, Seattle Genetics and Takeda announced positive, statistically significant top-line results from the phase 3 Echelon-2 trial of Adcetris in combination with chemotherapy in frontline, CD-30-positive peripheral T-cell lymphoma. With these results, firm expects to file for U.S. approval in November, and we expect a more detailed data readout at the American Society of Hematology conference in early December. The expansion of Adcetris to frontline, CD-30-positive lymphoma indications is a key driver in our model, paving the way for over $1 billion in Adcetris sales by 2022. Trials for Seattle Genetics' pipeline oncology candidates are mostly on-track, but the firm indicated that they would increase the number of patients for the tucatinib pivotal trial in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.
Underlying
Seagen Inc.

Seattle Genetics is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes therapies targeting cancer. The company is commercializing ADCETRIS?, or brentuximab vedotin, for the treatment of several types of lymphoma. The company is also developing a pipeline of therapies for solid tumors and blood-related cancers designed to address unmet medical needs and improve treatment outcomes for patients. Many of the company's programs, including ADCETRIS, are based on its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), technology. The company's late-stage pipeline includes two ADCs and an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor, for solid tumors that are in clinical trials designed to support applications for potential regulatory approvals.

Provider
Morningstar
Morningstar

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.

Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.

We have operations in 27 countries.

Analysts
Karen Andersen

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