Morningstar | Judge Rules SNC-Lavalin Will Stand Trial on Bribery and Corruption Charges; Maintaining FVE
A Quebec judge has ruled that SNC-Lavalin will stand trial on bribery and corruption charges related to projects in Libya that date back to 2001 to 2011. If found guilty, the no-moat engineering and construction firm faces a fine and could be barred from bidding on Canadian federal government contracts for 10 years.We don’t plan to change our CAD 34 fair value estimate, as we are not surprised by the outcome of the preliminary inquiry. As we indicated in our May 22 report, we considered it likely that the case would head to trial. In our base-case scenario, we model CAD 200 million in potential fines. Additionally, we conservatively project low-single-digit revenue growth, as the legal overhang has weakened the firm’s competitive position and could result in a drop in revenue from contracts funded by the Canadian federal government.
Although we believe most of the bad news is already priced in, with shares trading below the CAD 27 value of the firm’s stake in Highway 407 alone, we continue to urge caution. Since the outcome of the bribery case may not be known for years, the legal overhang could continue to weigh down the stock price, which is reflected in our negative moat trend and very high uncertainty ratings.
SNC-Lavalin Group is an engineering and construction group, and is engaged in the ownership of infrastructure and in the provision of operations and maintenance services. Co.'s segments are: mining and metallurgy, which provide tailored solutions for projects in the aluminum, gold, copper product sectors, among others; oil and gas, which includes projects for oil and gas and resources companies; power, which includes projects and services in hydro, and nuclear and thermal power generation, among others; infrastructure, which include infrastructure & construction, and operations and maintenance; capital, which invest in equity or subordinated debt into projects for public services.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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