Morningstar | Soft Profitability Leads Us to Temper Our Short-Term Expectations for Target
With third-quarter profitability hindered by supply chain and digital order fulfillment costs, we plan to trim our $71 per share valuation for no-moat Target by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage. Although our long-term outlook is intact (low-single-digit sales growth, mid-single-digit adjusted operating margins on average over the next decade) and our reaction is more muted than the shares' high-single-digit percentage swoon after the announcement because of our slightly less optimistic near-term targets, we still suggest investors await a more attractive entry point.Target posted 5% comparable sales growth for the quarter and year to date. Digital sales led growth (49% for the quarter) but weighed on margins (as did a pre-holiday inventory build-up), leading to a 4.6% third-quarter operating margin (5.7% year to date), versus 5.0% in fiscal 2017's third quarter. Management left its fiscal 2018 adjusted EPS guidance at $5.30 to $5.50; our $5.41 pre-announcement mark does not include $0.07 of third-quarter tax-related adjustments, effectively leaving our estimate near the low end of management's forecast.
We have a favorable view of Target's rapid drive-up expansion, which allows customers to pick up orders placed online in the store, particularly given management's estimate that many of the transactions are either incremental or in lieu of (more expensive to fulfill) shipment to home. We believe management's citation of unexpectedly high digital growth as a reason for third-quarter margin compression reinforces our view that Target can best compete in a changing retail world with a robust combination of omnichannel fulfillment options that leverage its store base. Although we do not believe the firm's competitive standing benefits from an economic moat, we believe Target can deliver performance by capitalizing on the convenience and fulfillment economics provided by its well-located store network (including its growing small-format roster in urban areas).
Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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