Transferring Coverage of Swatch: Downgrade to Narrow Moat, Stable Trend; Shares Fairly Valued
We are reinitiating coverage of Swatch with a narrow moat rating and a fair value estimate of CHF 333, implying 8% upside from the current market price. Our narrow moat rating is based on intangible assets and cost advantage. We take a more pessimistic view on the moat, given the company’s lack of distribution control and production discipline, as well as uncertainty on smartwatch substitution over the next 20 years. Swatch Group’s luxury brands boast 100- to 200-year histories and iconic collec...
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