Tougher times are ahead for Caterpillar sales and equipment hire versus the China-boom peak.
We still think Seven Group is overvalued. We require 6.5% five-year revenue growth at a midcycle 20% plus EBITDA margin to justify the current share price--unrealistic in our assessment. Our base case AUD 8.75 per share fair value estimate assumes 6.0% annual average group revenue growth to AUD 3.9 billion by fiscal 2022, still well below fiscal 2013’s AUD 4.8 billion peak. We also assume a midcycle 18.0% EBITDA margin, increased in September due to Coates’ consolidation and well ahead of the 12...
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