Launching Coverage of Yamazaki With Narrow Moat and Stable Moat Trend Ratings; FVE of JPY 2,090
We initiate coverage of Yamazaki Baking with a fair value estimate of JPY 2,090, and assign it narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings. The stock is trading close to our fair value estimate although our operating profit estimates are 14% below the 2017 guidance and 2%-5% below the consensus. We expect rising logistic costs will erode margins while recovery in biscuit profits is unlikely to take place until 2018. We think management has been taking a conservative approach to logistic operations...Yamazaki Baking is a baking company. Co. is engaged in the manufacture of bread, Japanese and western confectionery and the sale of its products to retailers; the manufacture and sale of bakery products; the operation of bakery cafes and bakeries; and the manufacture and sale of sandwiches, packed meals, rice balls, Japanese crackers, snacks and rice crackers. Co. is also engaged in the operation of convenience stores and food supermarkets; the logistics business; the design, supervision and construction of food manufacturing facilities; the office work entrusted business; the non-life insurance agency business; and the manufacture and sale of cleaning agents for baking equipment.
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