ECB July meeting: A Higher Bar for Another Rate Cut, But Not Off the T...

At today’s meeting, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% for t he interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility respectively . The decision – widely expected – was unanimous . The ECB mentioned that the recent economic information was in line with its baseline scenario, so with the economy being resilient overall in a challenging global environment , while d ome...

トランプはアジアの貿易の流れを変えられるのか

Euro Area: July PMIs at 11-month high

Euro Area flash Composite PMI has continued to recover in July to 51 (11-month high) from 50.6 in June , slightly above consensus expectations ( 49.8 ) . Both services (+0.7 points to 51.2, 6-month high) and manufacturing ind ices (+0.3 points to 49.8, 36-month high) improved. Subcomponents paused from previous months' improvements The breakdown of the index remained robust in July. Thus, composite new orders and future output components have improved again , but at a slower pace ...

The Philippines and Japan Trade Deals Put the Pressure on South Korea ...

The message is loud and clear – Trump tariffs are here for everyone, and not just China. An important ally like Japan got handed a 15% rate for reciprocal tariff with a key sectoral reprieve of 15% versus 25%. While tariffs are lower than reciprocal tariff day, except for the Philippines which got 19%, a two percentage higher than the 17% announced in April. Putting together the latest deals (Japan and the Philippines), it becomes increasingly clear that 10% is the new zero and economies are con...

FOMC Preview: Can’t Hurry Doves, no Trump Just Has to Wait

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold rates steady for the fifth straight meeting at an upper bound of 4.5% in its July meeting. Despite the advocacy for a shift in policy from Governors Waller and Bowman, not to mention the White House, we do not expect a significant departure in the tone and communication from Chair Powell or in the official statement. With tariffs beginning to be felt in consumer prices and the unemployment rate ticking down in the intermeeting period, the Fed wi...