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Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
Iran, a bigger headache for China than Venezuela, but with Taiwan as p...
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, dwarfs the implications of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela for global geopolitics. While Venezuela's fall under U.S. influence disrupted China's access to Latin American oil and marked a symbolic setback for Beijing's alliances in the Americas, the strikes on Iran are much more important. Firstly, the risk to China's energy security is much larger as Chinese oil imports from Iran are much larger than from Venezuela (...
Benito Berber
- Benito Berber
Théophile LEGRAND
- Théophile LEGRAND
Rates weekly: Rally Running Out of Steam?
EUR rates:Recap of the week: Bull-flattening dynamics intensified across EUR curves this week, with key segments reaching key technical levels that warrant strategic reassessment. The 10Y Bund yield broke below 2.70% for the first time since late November, supported by sectoral rotation in the equity market and geopolitical risk premiums, while improving German macro data emerges as a potential headwind to the rally.Tactical view: We believe that the arguments for going long on the Bund are beco...
Jesus Castillo
- Jesus Castillo
Portugal: Q4 2025 Revised Upward; 2026 Outlook Remains Positive
GDP grew by 0.9% q/q in Q4 2025. This figure is a 0.1 percentage point (pp) upward revision from the first estimate released on 30 January 2026. Full-year GDP growth for 2025 reached 1.9%, down from 2.4% in 2024 , but still above the euro area average . Today's detailed national accounts show that the main contributor to quarterly GDP growth was again domestic demand excluding changes in inventories. Albeit decelerating from the previous quarter, domestic demand grew by 0.7% q/q in Q4, decel...
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+3)
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Gary NG
- Jianwei Xu
China is the biggest winner from the US court ruling against emergency...
The US Supreme Court’s ruling has once again sent shockwaves through uncharted geopolitical uncertainties, but it can still be too early to cheer for a world with lower tariffs. What matters for China is the narrowing of the tariff gap with peers, which can give it greater advantages. For other markets, the reduced gap now raises the question of whether such a commitment is worthwhile and the potential benefits.In the new scenario, China will be the biggest beneficiary as the effective US tariff...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-on mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow (respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did no...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-o n mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow ( respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did ...