China’s Influence at the United Nations: Words and Deeds

We investigate China’s influence at the United Nations (UN) by focusing on the promotion of its narratives (words) and its voting behaviour (deeds). For the former, we assess the extent to which China’s global initiatives have become embedded in UN discourse, compared to Western narratives. For the latter, we assess the degree to which countries, regions and voting coalitions align their UN General Assembly votes with China, compared to the US.When it comes to words, China’s global initiatives– ...

Scissor’s effect between tighter US credit spreads and wider € ones

Outperformance of US credit after the election of D. Trump In line with the sharp outperformance of US equities (+5% for the S&P 500 last week) vs their € counterparts (-1.1% for the EuroStoxx 50) after US elections, US$ credit spreads have been sharply compressing vs € ones over the past week: US HY spreads have tightened by 29bp while €HY ones are wider by 9bp vs swaps Corp Hybrids have also underperformed (+9 bp), while AT1s have managed to tighten further (-6 bp), benefiting from expect...

Quiet markets after a clear cut US election

October Consumer Price Index Preview

We estimate that headline CPI rose 0. 2 34 % m/m (prev. 0.2%) in October on a seasonally adjusted basis and that core CPI rose 0. 318 % m/m (prev. 0.3%). From a year-on-year view, we forecast headline CPI rising 2. 5 65 % y/y (prev. 2.4%) and core CPI rising 3. 3 39 % y/y (prev. 3.3%). Our estimates reflect a marginal acceleration in consumer prices versus what we experienced in September , largely due to an expected acceleration in used vehicle prices.

Updating the EU strategy on China: co-existence while de- risking thro...

The European Union-China relationship has deteriorated markedly since the EU introduced a three-part strategy in 2019 based on partnership, competition and systemic rivalry. The relationship has been undermined by China’s support for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and its increasingly anti-Western foreign policy that aims to alter the international rules-based system. Meanwhile, the economic relationship is changing because of China’s structural deceleration and increasing self-reliance, coupled...