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Christopher HODGE ... (+2)
- Christopher HODGE
- Jonathan PINGLE
Fine-tuning our Fed Call: No need to skip October
W e have slightly altered our Fed call to include a cut in October of this year, where we previously forecast cuts in only September and December. The reason for adding another cut is threefold. First, the solid domestic demand observed in Q1 because of front running tariffs pull ed forward consumption and investment and weaken ed our outlook for business investment later in the year. Second, we did not see very much passthrough from initial March tariffs into March's low inflation figures...
Christopher HODGE ... (+2)
- Christopher HODGE
- Jonathan PINGLE
Labor market treads water in a choppy sea
The employment report from April showed a labor market that continues to tread water, even if the sea is choppy. The better-than-expected payroll print reflect continued strength in specific sectors (hospitality and healthcare) and boost from transportation and warehousing, likely reflecting increased staffing needs to grapple with looming tariffs. Wednesday’s GDP report showed resilient domestic demand in Q1 and we think that businesses will be inclined to hoard labor and not cut staff until...
Bastien AILLET ... (+3)
- Bastien AILLET
- Hadrien CAMATTE
- Jesus Castillo
Euro area April flash inflation: core inflation unexpectedly rose in A...
Euro area headline flash inflation remained stable in April, at 2.2% Y/Y, slightly above market expectations. However, core inflation unexpectedly picked up to 2.7% from 2.4%, led by an increase in the services sector (3.9% from 3.5%, back to its January pace). Inflation for non-energy industrial goods remained unchanged at +0.6% for the third month in a row, while energy prices dropped again to -3.5% from -1.0% due to a sharp decrease in oil prices. Inflation increased markedly in the Netherla...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-on mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow (respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did no...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-o n mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow ( respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did ...