USD/JPY のオプションで期間3カ月、行使価格 155円のプットを、ノックアウト価格 148.5円で買うことを推奨

UK Budget: Ensuring Fiscal Discipline

At today’s press conference, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled the UK budget, accompanied by the Office for Budget Responsibility's publication of its Economic and Fiscal Outlook for the five-year period leading up to 2030-31. In the central forecast, the government's fiscal mandate aims to achieve a balanced current budget by 2029-30, with a larger fiscal margin of £22 billion compared to earlier figures reported in March. While assuring investors of fiscal credibility and a commitment to ...

Main takeaways from our Credit 2026 Outlook Survey

152 total answers received between the 7th and the 20th November 2025: thanks for your amazing contributions!1/ Risk is seen as asymmetric towards a widening, for both credit indices and cash marketsAlthough investors believe technicals will remain rather supportive in 2026 with decent inflows expected again for credit funds, while they feel comfortable regarding credit quality (particularly for financials), more than 50% believe too tight valuations will lead to a spread correction next yearThe...

Has the LatAm FX rally gone beyond its fundamentals?

Latin American currencies have been appreciating against the dollar in 2025, driven by dollar weakness and rising commodity prices, despite trade uncertainties. In this note, we explore which currencies in Latin America are overvalued and undervalued. Utilizing models such as the Behavioral Equilibrium of Exchange Rate (BEER) and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), we assess the fair value of the currencies, indicating potential corrections in areas where exchange rates may not align with underlyi...

A (healthy) value correction at last - Our weekly cross-asset views

Despite a rather positive news flow this week (Nvidia beating expectations again!) and decent NFP figures (with a limited impact on rates and Fed pricing), risk aversion has continued to rise. Week-to-date, risky assets are having their worst week since April (SPX & MSCI World $ -2.9%) amid concerns about tech, private debt, and cryptocurrency bubbles. The US dollar is a clear winner this week (DXY +1.1%) with markets seeing the Fed skipping a December cut.Nevertheless, many signs of resilience ...