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Benoit GERARD ... (+3)
- Benoit GERARD
- Eya CHAMMAKHI
- Théophile LEGRAND
Rates Weekly: Temporary Shock or Not?
EUR rates - Recap of the week: EUR rates remained under strong pressure this week as the escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a renewed surge in energy prices and inflation expectations. The front end led the move, with the 2Y Schatz rising toward 2.60% and markets now pricing around 3 hikes for the ECB in 2026. Curves bear-flattened significantly, with 2s10s compressing toward the low-20bp area. Despite the magnitude of the move, long-end yields remained largerly unchanged, while sover...
Emilie TETARD ... (+2)
- Emilie TETARD
- Florent Pochon
Resilience or complacency? - Our Weekly Cross-Asset Views
This was the 3rd week of war in Iran and it was again an hectic week with the markets swinging from early week de-escalation hopes to fears that the worst may be happening when Ras Laffan was damaged yesterday and reported that 17% of Qatar’s LNG exports will be gone the next quarters. Brent oil price is stuck well above 100$/bbl (up 5% wtd, touched 119$ yesterday), TTF is up 22% wtd (at 61 €/MWh down from the Thursday high of 72), and risk asset correlation to oil price remains very negative.At...
Bastien AILLET
- Bastien AILLET
Germany: February MoF Report Signals Positive Fiscal Impulse in Q1
The February federal government monthly report confirms January’s figures . Over the period January to February, e xpenditure rose sharply, by 9.6 % Y/Y, while revenues fell by 6.5 %. As a result, the fiscal deficit already stands at € 34 bn ( Chart 1 , out of the €94bn or 2% of GDP targeted ) , financed entirely by cash reserves as in January , which have also been used to offset a net borrowing shortfall of €2 6.2 bn. Expenditures totalled € 93.1 bn in January -February . Consu...
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Jianwei Xu
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Jianwei Xu
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-on mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow (respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did no...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-o n mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow ( respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did ...