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Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Haoxin MU
Investors interested in China’s green transition should focus on the p...
In 2024, China’s renewable sector experienced wide-spread losses due to overcapacity. However, it doesn’t mean China’s green transition will grind to a halt. In this note, we analyze the emerging opportunities in China’s power infrastructure, i.e., power grid equipment and battery energy storage manufacturers (see Appendix).China has reached the 1,200GW renewable capacity target 6 years in advance, but the share of renewable in energy consumption remains low as grid construction usually lags pow...
Benito Berber
- Benito Berber
Mexico – Trip Notes
We were in Mexico last week, where we met with central bank officials, independent economists, pension fund managers and corporate representatives. We perceived a sense of cautious optimism. Growth is weak, but slightly better than expected at the beginning of the year. Inflation is sticky, particularly core inflation, but the moderation might be enough for the continuation of rate cuts particularly if the Fed re-starts its easing cycle soon. Pemex remains problematic, but the recently announced...
July CPI Review: Goods Prices Remain Behaved
Overall the July CPI report showed less tariff related goods pressures than expected, in a month where we believed increased price pass-throughs would be more evident. Where tariff related cost increases are being absorbed along the supply chain is yet to be determined (tomorrow’s PPI should help inform), but thus far while goods prices are rising faster than earlier in the year, the impact in July was less than expected. For details, headline CPI came out at +0.2% m/m (+0.197% unrounded, +0.2%...
Thibaut Cuilliere
- Thibaut Cuilliere
How sensitive are French banks to Sovereign ratings and spreads ?
What if France’s political and fiscal instability pressure were to come back before year-end ? What consequences for French banks’ ratings and spreads?As the pressure has been mounting again on the French government (see France 2026 Budget: Impossible mission II from our economists) regarding the 2026 budget, the likelihood of a French sovereign rating downgrade has recently increased.Against this backdrop, we are exploring hereafter the relationships between i/ France’s ratings and French Banks...
Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
Trump’s Tariff Flooding Puts Taiwan at the Center of a Supply Chain Cr...
The recent escalation of US tariffs under the second Trump administration is a major blow to Asian, and thereby global, supply chains. But among the many economies affected, Taiwan faces perhaps the most delicate and complex challenge of all.Trump has imposed high import tariffs across Asia—maybe not as high as the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day,” but certainly higher than ever. China tops the list with 30% additional tariffs (around 50% overall when...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-on mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow (respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did no...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-o n mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow ( respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did ...