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Dirk Schumacher
- Dirk Schumacher
Euro area : decline in PMIs underscores downside risks
The November composite PMI surprisingl y declined against expectations of a stable reading. The negative surprise c ame mostly from a drop in services sector sentiment , though manufacturing sentiment also recorded a small decline. While these figure s should not be taken at face value, they nevertheless reflect the growing downside risks to the euro area economy.
Emilie TETARD
- Emilie TETARD
Cold wind blowing across Europe
Since Donald Trump’s election, a cold wind has been blowing across Europe with disappointing macro figures and fears of a renewed trade war. At the same time, the heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine are further weakening risk appetite in Europe. On the interest rate front, the divergence in monetary policies is accelerating (ECB rate cuts priced in at -39bp for Dec. 24). On the stock market front, the Euro Stoxx 50 posted its sixth consecutive week in the red, while US indices held up...
Emilie TETARD
- Emilie TETARD
Un vent froid sur l’Europe
Depuis l’élection de D. Trump, un vent de froid souffle sur l’Europe avec des chiffres macro décevants et des craintes autour d’un regain de guerre commerciale avec la prochaine administration américaine . En parallèle, le regain de tensions entre la Russie et l’Ukraine fragilise encore plus, en relatif, l ’appétit pour le risque en Europe . Côté taux, la divergence de politiques monétaires s’accélère (-37 pb pricés pour Déc-24 pour la BCE). Côté actions, l’ Eurostoxx 50 signe une 6 ème...
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Haoxin MU
Bangladesh’s economic miracle is fading due to excessive debt burden a...
It has been over 100 days since Bangladesh’s former PM Sheikh Hasina resigned after weeks of protests. An interim government has since taken office, led by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, an economist and Nobel laureate known as “banker to the poor.” This interim government is on a mission to stabilize the battered economy. In this note, we review the latest economic developments in this country to conclude that the situation is becoming more fragile, especially given the heavy debt burden, notwit...
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
- Alicia Garcia Herrero
- Gary NG
NATIXIS China Corporate Monitor 2024 - Pressure in profitability can f...
Chinese corporates have been suffering from weak economic growth with pressure on profitability. After the frenzy and cool-down in China's stock markets following the hype of stimulus, corporate performance may improve if the RMB 10 trillion clean-up plan successfully repairs local government balance sheets and boosts confidence. Despite a more accommodative policy stance, credit risks stay elevated illustrated in the higher share of zombie firms. Externally, China will face greater external hea...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-on mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow (respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did no...
Inna Mufteeva ... (+2)
- Inna Mufteeva
- Thibaut Cuilliere
Lipper-FMI fund flow data - Week ended August 29
Fund flows showed a more risk-o n mood of the investors due to more positive political news flow ( respite in trade war tensions, new coalition government in Italy) . Indeed, US IG and US HY enjoyed +3.5bn and +$0.69bn inflows respectively while EM debt funds got +$0.2bn. Yet, investors remained vary of equities with the $7.3bn of outflows for US-based equity funds . M oney market funds saw significant outflows at $16.2bn after solid inflows a week before -$16.2bn while l everage loan funds did ...