Japan’s still negative neutral rate points to a very slow exit from ul...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s monetary policy has been an outlier among major global central banks. It was not only the last central bank to end the unconventional monetary policy tools but also the first one to actively use those tools from the 90s.With declining neural rate, the BoJ confronted the zero nominal lower bound, a belief that the policy rate cannot fall below 0%, when the economy suffered from a prolonged deflation. In fact, our latest Cross-Expertise* revealed that Japan’s neutral rate...

Chain reaction

Geopolitical tensions will remain a key concern in the coming days. The attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran are highly unpredictable, despite appeals from the international community not to trigger an escalation that could lead to a regional war with harmful consequences for all the parties involved. The main protagonists have a responsibility not to exceed the “critical mass” that would lead to an uncontrolled chain reaction. On the economic front, the ball will remain in the cou...

Réaction en chaîne

Les tensions géopolitiques vont rester au cœur des préoccupations dans les prochains jours. Les attaques et contre-attaques entre Israël et l’Iran sont extrêmement imprévisibles malgré les appels de la communauté internationale à ne pas enclencher une escalade susceptible de conduire à une guerre régionale dont les conséquences seraient néfastes pour l’ensemble des parties engagées. Les principaux protagonistes ont la responsabilité de ne pas dépasser la « masse critique » qui conduirait à une r...

Biden targets unions and young professionals with new policies

President Biden this week laid out a plan to increase tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products and to take another swing at student debt forgiveness. Both policies have questionable positive macroeconomic effects, with potentially considerable downsides. Tariffs on Chinese imports risk retaliatory measures and both tariffs and debt forgiveness could help stoke further inflation. The targets of both policies – union workers and blue-collar Americans more broadly , as well as young coll...

Global public debt set to increase by 5.6pp of GDP to 99% by 2029