13 probabilities of recession in the US… Take your pick

Turning the announcement of a new system of trade tariffs into a media extravaganza, a subject that on the face of it seems dry and boring, takes a genius of communication to pull off. Donald Trump has done it. On 2 April, flanked by his entire government and in front of the TV cameras, he announced his plan to restore ‘fair and reciprocal’ trade and ‘liberate’ America. Apart from his diehard supporters, everyone thinks that this plan is an economic disaster and that it risks discouraging trade with the United States, causing prices to soar and weighing on consumer morale and spending. Did you say recession? On that subject, what do the models say...