ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 20/05/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 05/20/2025

Arkema : A unique source of EBITDA in a bleak macroeconomic climate

Arkema stands out from peers with over € 400m in potential EBITDA to be generated by fully financed projects. Unluckily, the macroeconomic environment, which caused the group to lose over € 200m in EBITDA, deteriorated further at the start of the year, with major uncertainties now weighing on the outlook. We are lowering our EPS estimates by 8% (2025-27 average). Our new target price, adjusted to € 85 from € 92 (6x 2025e pro forma EBITDA), still harbours significant upside (current price close to a bear-case scenario excluding any pick-up in demand over the next few years).

Negative signals for the US housing sector

Macro indicators for the construction sector, and the housing market in particular, have been poor recently. Homebuilders confidence has plummeted, housing sales and starts are stagnating at low levels. A sector so central to the economy appears to be frozen. President Trump has an idea for boosting the sector, and this would involve cutting Fed rates by 200-300bp in one fell swoop, in the hope of making the cost of mortgage borrowing bearable. His anti-Powell fury no doubt has something to do with this housing slump. It goes without saying that the Fed is not prepared to move that fast or th...

Oddo’s 2 Weeks Ahead_Friday 27 June 2025

Signaux négatifs pour le secteur immobilier US

Dernièrement, les indicateurs macro relatifs au secteur de la construction, en particulier le marché du logement, ont été mauvais. La confiance des promoteurs a chuté, les ventes et la production de logements stagnent à un bas niveau. Un secteur si central pour l’économie paraît gelé. Le président Trump a une idée pour lui redonner du tonus, ce serait de baisser les taux de la Fed de 200-300pdb d’un coup, dans l’espoir de rendre supportable le coût des emprunts immobiliers. Sa fureur anti-Powell a sans doute à voir avec ce marasme. La Fed n’est pas disposée à bouger si vite ni si fort il va sa...