Report
Team Pharma

ODDO : Fundamentals vs uncertainty

The recent setbacks for some sector companies (disappointments over Novo Nordisk’s Cagrisema and Roche’s anti-TIGIT or the investigations in China for AZN) along with question marks over US policy have generated a derating leading to a nominally attractive valuations: P/E 2026e of 13.2x. The full-year earnings reports of the six European large cap pharma companies were extremely reassuring, confirming short- and long-term market expectations. With average expected EPS growth between 2024 and 2028 of c10%, the sector PEG is just 1.3x. In this context, we favour Sanofi as our top pick and upgrade our ratings on Novo Nordisk and AZN from Neutral to Outperform, and downgrade GSK and Novartis from Outperform to Neutral. We maintain our Underperform rating on Roche.
Underlyings
AstraZeneca PLC

AstraZeneca is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing its pipeline of small molecule and biologic prescription medicines, including targeted business development through collaboration, in-licensing and acquisitions. Co. is focused on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, and Respiratory. Co. is also selectively active in autoimmunity, infection and neuroscience. In addition, Co. works across small molecules, oligonucleotides and other drug platforms, as well as biologic medicines.

Novartis AG

Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.

NOVO NORDISK A/S

Roche Holding Ltd

Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.

Sanofi

Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.

Provider
Oddo BHF
Oddo BHF

​Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.

Analysts
Team Pharma

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