Bank : AT1 - 2018, first call test for the market
Publication date 02/02/2018 10:13 - Writing date 02/02/2018 10:08 - - - - /all in May 2018 for BBVA AT1 - CRD2/CRR2 publication in the Official Journal of the European Union in 2018 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - AT1 instruments turned in a stellar performance in 2017 that will be hard to copy, given the absolute spread and yield levels achieved and the underlying risks that may re-emerge. - > - Since 2016 and the decision to split Pillar 2, and as banks continue to shore up their capital ratios, coupon non-payment is not a significant risk any more. - Nor is the risk of writedown or conversion of the principal, and even less so for investors since the Banco Popular affair. Surprisingly, the low-trigger level (5.125%) remains valid for new issuances, although the regulator proved that the point of non-viability (PONV) was far higher. - - Extension will be the prevailing risk this year. The 2013 inaugural issuances of BBVA, Socgen and Barclay's arrive at their first call dates this year. The economic incentive to exercise these calls looks compelling to us given coupon resets after the first call date. Bear in mind though that it is for the regulator to assess and approve redemptions. - - In this comment, we provide an overview of the potential risks on this market segment and offer our recommendations as conclusion.