Can we switch the light back on for the US economy?

The government shutdown is on course to set a record for duration, depriving the markets and central bankers of official statistics that are crucial for analysing the business cycle. And this occurs just when the US economy is showing signs of bifurcation (the so-called K-shaped expansion) and the Fed is torn between the two sides of its mandate (inflation picking up, job creation slowing down). Of course, there is alternative information, but it is imperfect or incomplete. Jerome Powell warned that the statistical fog was one argument - among others - for pausing the rate-cutting cycle at the next FOMC meeting in December.