China: cyclical or organic slowdown? Or both?

Since the shock of the spring of 2020, no country has experienced a faster and stronger recovery than China. The stimulation of demand in the rest of the world contributed significantly to the rebound in Chinese output, even as domestic demand was constrained. Although locally targeted, stringent health restrictions remain in place (closure of factories, ports). After a sustained expansion in 2020, credit flows have dried up. In Q3 2021, GDP seems to be virtually flat. When faced...