ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 07/21/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 21/07/2025

Coface : Net income expected down in Q2 impacted by normalisation of the combined ratio

ODDO : Sailing through hard times

We are resuming coverage of Romanian banks with an Outperform rating and a TP of RON 32.3 on Banca Transilvania (TLV) and a Neutral stance with a TP of RON 20.3 on BRD. We believe that current market prices largely factor in the downside risks of the upcoming fiscal consolidation package even beyond 2026. Despite BRD's increasing appetite for growth, we favour TLV due to its effective growth through its M&A strategy, higher long-term ROE potential and more attractive valuation metrics.

Ayvens : The EV residual value issue remains but the risk/return ratio looks favourable: Outperform vs Neutral, target price € 12 vs € 6

Although the uncertainty surrounding EV residual values has not disappeared, this risk is now less critical thanks to the conservative pricing policy adopted since the end of 2023, versus an EPS CAGR of +24% over 2024-2027. Coupled with the successful execution of synergies, we have significantly upgraded our target price to € 12 from € 6.0 (lower cost of capital) and our rating to Outperform from Neutral.

Ayvens : La question de la valeur résiduelle des EV subsiste mais le rendement/risque nous paraît favorable : Surperformance vs Neutre, OC à 12 € vs 6 €

Si l‘incertitude liée à la valeur résiduelle des EV n’a pas disparu, ce risque est désormais moins critique, grâce à la politique de pricing conservatrice depuis fin 2023, et face à un TMVA 2024-2027 des BPA de +24%. Couplé à la bonne exécution des synergies, nous relevons sensiblement notre OC à 12 € vs 6.0 € (coût du capital plus faible) et notre opinion à Surperformance vs Neutre.