Avolta : HY Retail : Call me maybe
The maturity profile of high-yield debt in the retail and personal & household goods (PHG) sectors shows a total of around € 5bn in maturities in 2026 and 2027, for which we expect a moderate € 3.5bn to € 4bn in conventional refinancing. However, a major wave of early refinancing of longer-dated notes could very well come onto the primary market this year in order to benefit from lower interest rates and spreads.Most of these bonds, issued in 2023-24 with high coupons, can be called from 2026 at a high premium (50% of the coupon), whilst floating-rate bonds will very often see their call price fall to par this year, if this has not already occured.
The market has priced € 6.7bn of high-yield retail and PHG bonds due after 2027 on a call in 2026, and € 4.1bn of floating-rate notes, i.e. € 11bn in total. Added to the refinancings expected in 2026 and 2027, this could take the total amount of potential refinancings in 2026 to € 14bn-€ 15bn.
In this report, we focus on this universe of notes priced on their 2026 call and have drawn up a list of the expected refinancings that we consider most likely this year, with technical adjustments to recommendations where necessary.
Dufry is a travel retail company. Co. operates over 1,650 shops worldwide. Co.'s shops are either duty free or duty paid shops, located in airports. Co.'s product categories include: Perfumes and Cosmetics; Confectionery, Food and Catering; Wine and Spirits; Watches, Jewelry and Accessories; Tobacco goods; Fashion, Leather and Baggage; Literature and Publications; Electronics; and Toys, Souvenirs and other goods.
Fnac Darty is engaged in the leisure and entertainment, technology, and household appliances retail market in France and a player on markets in other countries where it operates such as Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Fnac Darty also has franchise operations in Morocco, Qatar and Ivory Coast.
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
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