Economic outlook after the Putin shock

The war in Ukraine injects a considerable dose of uncertainty. First, both the intensity and duration of the war are hard to predict. Not all wars end after six days; some drag on for 30 years and this one is entering its third week. Second, the warring parties represent a huge share of global trade in oil, gas, agricultural products, fertilisers and some metals. Both have been weakened. The aggressor has rightly been placed under severe sanctions, while the invaded country has e...