Economic outlook – Consumer stress test

The world economy began 2023 better than expected. The Fed’s monetary tightening, though exceptional, has still not tipped the US into recession. The energy crisis that threatened Europe with severe shortages last winter is a distant memory. China’s economic recovery appears somewhat lacklustre, but this has averted a jump in commodity prices. Inflationary pressures continue to ease across the globe. And concerns about a systemic banking crisis sparked by SVB’s collapse have evap...