Equity markets are no longer pricing in a US recession in 2025 because of US trade tariffs, and they are right

The European and US equity markets have integrated the uncertainties linked to the tariff war. According to our two scenarios (soft and hard) developed in this flash, the risk of recession is very low for the US and non-existent for the global economy. We therefore believe that the low point for equity markets was reached on 7 April, at least with regard to the tariff risk. In terms of geographical allocation, we remain Neutral between European and US equities, but with a more constructive view on both asset classes than in our Quarterly Equity Strategy of 27 March.