Flos B&B Italia (ex-IDG) : Ratings at risk after a challenging start to the year. Lowering our recommendation.

After an upswing in its operating performance in Q3 and Q4 2024, Flos B&B Italia experienced a fairly sharp downturn in Q1, with double-digit declines in top-line sales in the Americas and Asia, and Q2 looks set to follow suit. Q2 is poised to be similar and visibility for the rest of the year remains very limited, significantly dependent on business in the US. Against this backdrop, the high leverage ratio, which had never really begun to decline since the M&A transactions carried in 2021/2022, climbed to 5.2x based on adjusted EBITDA and to 6.1x based on reported EBITDA. This could disappoint ratings agencies, which were expecting an upturn in business and deleveraging in 2025 and jeopardise the rating. We are lowering our recommendation to Reduce (vs. Neutral) until the economic environment improves.