Report
France: first impact of the war in Iran
Before the new Gulf War, the consensus forecast for French real GDP growth was 1% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. What will change now? The answer lies entirely in the assumption regarding the scale of the energy shock and its duration. A short and modest shock will have a negligible impact. A long and sustained shock will lead to recession. In between, there is scope for multiple variations. At this stage, oil prices have surged but there is no major pressure on electricity prices, which greatly mitigates the shock compared to 2022 during the war in Ukraine. Business sentiment will weaken but not, we believe, to the extent of signalling a break in the recovery.
Provider
Oddo BHF
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
Bruno Cavalier
Other Reports from Oddo BHF
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.