France: implications of the “yellow vests” movement

In a few short months, the “yellow vests” movement (gilets jaunes) has changed the way France is viewed in the economic and political spheres. The negative impact on the pace of activity seems modest, transient, limited to some sectors. On the contrary, the impact on the business climate and household confidence is extremely brutal. It does not square with the hard data from the real economy. As the strength of the movement has eased, a correction is likely. The budget impact is ...