France: winter worries in the middle of the summer

France’s economy is not in recession, at least not yet, but six months of war in Ukraine has led the consensus of forecasters to lower its real GDP growth outlook by 2.8 points cumulatively over 2022 and 2023. (That's -4 points in the case of Germany over the same period). There is every reason to fear that the revision is not over. Extreme tension in the energy markets is likely to prolong the inflationary shock, as the "tariff shield" cannot be extended indefinitely given its ...