Global outlook: A time for sacrifice

Before the pandemic, global real GDP growth was around 3.5% per annum. After a sharp deviation on the downside (-3% in 2020, lockdown), then on the upside (+6% in 2021, reopening), the global economy was back to this cruising speed in early 2022 when two shocks occurred. The first was the war in Ukraine, with direct negative repercussions, especially on Europe, through the channels of uncertainty, prices, activity and trade. The energy crisis deepened over the summer. The second ...