Iliad : Additional thoughts on potential market consolidation in France

We published a Special Comment on Iliad on 3rd September 2023 in the context of Iliad SA’s issuance of € 600m of new unsecured notes due in January 2032 (long 6Y) at a yield of 4.25%. We touched briefly upon Iliad’s solid H1 2025 earnings, the group’s adequate liquidity, and its current Ba3/BB ratings with a positive outlook. In this report, we are adding some thoughts about the capital structure and the impact of a potential consolidation in France, in the light of a new article published by BFMTV on 10 September 2025.

Iliad : Additional thoughts on potential market consolidation in France

We published a Special Comment on Iliad on 3rd September 2023 in the context of Iliad SA’s issuance of € 600m of new unsecured notes due in January 2032 (long 6Y) at a yield of 4.25%. We touched briefly upon Iliad’s solid H1 2025 earnings, the group’s adequate liquidity, and its current Ba3/BB ratings with a positive outlook. In this report, we are adding some thoughts about the capital structure and the impact of a potential consolidation in France, in the light of a new article published by BFMTV on 10 September 2025.

Iliad : Recommandation Achat sur les nouvelles obligations Iliad SA 2032

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Composition of Lecornu government announced Sunday evening increases political risk in France: underweight French equities

Last night's announcements on the composition of the main ministries in Lecornu's government make it highly likely his government will quickly be ousted, leaving Emmanuel Macron with little choice but to dissolve the Assembly. We recommend underweighting French equities. Although French stocks have only slightly outperformed the Stoxx 600 since Mr Lecornu's appointment (1% in performance, 0.7% in valuation for the CAC 40 vs Stoxx 600), and have continued to underperform since the dissolution, this does not protect them from the political and economic consequences of a potential new dissolution...

La composition du gouvernement Lecornu annoncée dimanche soir accroît le risque politique français : sous-pondérer les actions françaises

Les annonces d’hier soir sur la composition des principaux ministères du gouvernement Lecornu rendent hautement probable une censure rapide de son gouvernement, qui ne laisserait d’autre choix à Emmanuel Macron que de dissoudre l’Assemblée. Nous recommandons de sous-pondérer les actions françaises. Même si ces dernières n’ont que peu surperformé le Stoxx 600 depuis la nomination de Sébastien Lecornu (1% en performance, 0,7% en valorisation pour le CAC 40 vs Stoxx 600), et qu’elles sont toujours en sous-performance depuis la dissolution, cela ne les protège pas des conséquences politiques et éc...