INEOS Group Holdings : Q4 2025 preview and first sights of Q1 2026

After a weak set of 9M 2025 results, we believe that Q4 2025 was not different with the performance for chemical producers impacted by continued oversupply, weak demand, political uncertainty, and region-specific issues such as high energy and carbon costs in Europe. As such, upcoming results should show weaker-than-anticipated results, as seen with INEOS Quattro’s trading statement (yeah, they published a bit earlier than we anticipated), and in line with INEOS weekly market updates. First glances over 2026 show an improvement in the overall performance in January, supported by both slightly better demand and supply constraints. Yet, it is too early to call it a victory in our view. In this short study, we comment on the expected Q4 2025 performance and what has been seen so far in January 2026. There will be more to come after the audited results are published.