INEOS Quattro : IGH & IQ: not feeling the chemistry in 2025

After a difficult FY 2024, the chemical industry is expected to remain tough for most of market participants, notably the commodity chemicals. Significant increases in supply, notably in China, are expected to continue over the short-term which coupled with a rather weak end-market demand, will continue to trim the operating rates, and therefore, limit the recovery in profitability. We expect negative FCF generation in 2025 for both IGH and IQ amid high growth capex (for IGH) and still BoC EBITDA (IQ). However, we highlight the strong liquidity position of both companies, supported by the good access to the debt markets.