INEOS Quattro : Update following Q3 results: In Project One we trust

Both INEOS Group Holdings (IGH) and INEOS Quattro (IQ) have continued to suffer from weak demand and market oversupply, with EBITDA down on a y/y basis for 9M 2025. No improvement is anticipated in Q4 given the seasonality of the business. Some slight improvement is expected in 2026, but we see this as limited for both actors. We see a strong improvement in 2027 for IGH supported by the start of operations of its key Project One. Management expects MoC levels to be reached first by IGH as a result. Stemming from the weak performance, questions regarding the liquidity positions and refinancing conditions have arisen. We estimate that in the event debt markets are closed for both operators, the liquidity position should last until at least mid-2027. As a result of tough market conditions, we expect bond price volatility to remain for the INEOS family, albeit if some exposure is desired, we believe there are some opportunities in certain bonds.