Is the US labour market approaching a tipping point?

Two years ago, the Fed began to think that a soft landing was possible, in other words that it could reduce inflation without a sharp rise in unemployment. Some economists also speak of an ‘immaculate disinflation’. To support this thesis, Governor Waller had built a model describing a normalisation of the labour market through a fall in job vacancies. This is exactly what happened. The vacancy rate fell from 7.4% to 4.8%. This model also predicted a critical threshold at 4.5%, b...