ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/05/2018

There is plenty of justification for defensives leading the market (cyclical erosion in H1, political and trade risk). However, as cyclical indicators have stopped worsening, the defensive/cyclical spread has largely stabilised since the start of July. Although it is probably too early to come back to cyclicals, we can see a pro-cyclical stance emerging (after the US midterms), based on: 1/ the macroeconomic situation; 2/ congestion in the defensive sphere; 3/ the materialisation of r...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/09/2018

Les raisons du leadership défensif abondent (érosion cyclique au S1, risque politique et commercial). Pour autant, alors que les indicateurs cycliques cessaient de se dégrader, le spread défensif-cyclique s’est peu ou prou stabilisé depuis début juillet. S’il est probablement trop tôt pour revenir sur les cycliques on peut entrevoir l’émergence (post mid terms US ?) d’un discours pro cyclique s’appuyant sur 1/ la macro, 2/ l’encombrement de l’espace défensif, 3/ la « réalisation » des...

SCOR : Surprise offer from Covéa rejected

>Covéa’s € 43/share offer was rejected by Scor’s board - Covéa (GMF, MAAF and MMA) announced yesterday morning that it made an offer for Scor at € 43 per share in cash on 24 August. The offer was financed with internal resources and secured debt. The offer was contingent on the recommendation of Scor’s board which met on 30 August and refused to enter talks with Covéa to negotiate a friendly link-up on the basis of its proposal. Covéa said it had taken account of the ...

NORMA Group SE : Portfolio Management to trigger a re-rating of the shares

Will Scott Bessent’s arrows hit their targets?

Scott Bessent, the future Treasury Secretary nominated this week by Donald Trump, sums up his roadmap in three points (the equivalent of late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s three arrows). First, to reduce the federal budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028. Second, to raise potential growth to 3% through deregulation. Third: increase oil production (or equivalent) by 3 Mb/d. Energy independence, supply conditions and public finances are interconnected. The world trade situation is not neutral either. The success of this 3-arrow strategy depends on whether Trump's tariff war leads to an escal...

Les flèches de Scott Bessent toucheront-elles leurs cibles ?

Scott Bessent, le futur Secrétaire au Trésor choisi cette semaine par Donald Trump, résume sa feuille de route en trois points (l’équivalent des trois flèches du PM japonais Abe). Un, ramener le déficit du budget fédéral à 3% du PIB en 2028. Deux, relever le potentiel de croissance à 3% grâce à la déréglementation. Trois, augmenter la production de pétrole (ou équivalent) de 3 Mb/j. Indépendance énergétique, conditions de production, finances publiques ont des influences croisées. La situation du commerce mondial n’est pas neutre non plus. La réussite de cette stratégie en dépend, selon que la...