MOL : New risk assumptions on Russian pipeline oil supply drive 20% target price cut
The intensification of EU rhetoric regarding the need for a complete decoupling from Russian oil and gas, the increasing frequency of Ukrainian attacks on Druzhba oil pipeline infrastructure and the availability of an alternative route for the supply of non-Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia have led us to adopt a new base-case scenario for MOL's valuation. Assuming a full halt to Russian oil supply from 2028, we estimate a negative impact of >$ 0.6bn on MOL’s EBITDA, which leads to a 20% reduction in our target price. Underperform rating maintained.Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
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