Ten things to know about the slope of the yield curve

Over the last fifty years, the inversion of the yield curve has been a fairly reliable predictor of recessions in the US, not, however, without a few false signals. The flattening of the US yield curve which has become more accentuated as the Fed pursues the normalisation of its monetary policy has placed certain long-short term interest rate spreads at levels unseen since 2001 or 2007, just prior to the last two recessions. If the Fed continues to hike its interest rates, do we ...