Report
The US economy after the shutdown: weaker and more uncertain
The federal government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown. This is a political defeat for the Democrats, who gave in without getting anything in return. It is also a blow to economic activity. Real GDP growth could be close to zero in Q4, before recovering in Q1 2026. However, the return to normal will not be instantaneous, particularly for federal statistical agencies. Some data for October will probably not be computed, while other statistics will be published late and their quality will be debated. This is an argument for those, decidedly numerous at the Fed, who are hostile to a policy rate cut. The probability of an monetary easing in December has fallen to 50%.
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Oddo BHF
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
Bruno Cavalier
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