Trade tariffs: the only thing that is certain is the uncertainty

Since taking office, Donald Trump has lived up to his nickname of Tariff Man. He has multiplied the announcements of trade tariff increases. Some were almost immediately cancelled (Colombia) or postponed (Canada, Mexico). Others are maintained but at a lower level than the maximum positions indicated during the presidential campaign (China). Still others are apparently to come (Europe). It is very difficult to disentangle what is real from what is noise The result is a surge in world trade uncertainty, almost as strong as during the first tariff war in 2018-2019 but much faster. In itself, this heightened uncertainty could cause a contraction in trade and act as a drag on the pace of activity.