Oddo BHF - Trump et quelques autres points chauds à surveiller en 2026

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Oddo BHF

Bruno Cavalier

Trump et quelques autres points chauds à surveiller en 2026

La première année de Trump 47, ça vous a plu, hein, vous en demandez encore ? Eh bien accrochez-vous car Trump sera à nouveau présent partout en 2026. Cela a commencé ce week-end au Venezuela. Donald Trump doit d’ici peu désigner le successeur de Powell en attendant de remplir d’autres postes vacants à la Fed. D’ici peu aussi, la SCOTUS pourrait retoquer certains de ses tarifs douaniers. Il y aura aussi les élections de mi-mandat, les cérémonies de la coupe du monde de football en Amérique du nord, les festivités marquant le 250ème anniversaire des Etats-Unis, et qui sait la réception du prix Nobel de la Paix s’il parvient à stopper la guerre en Ukraine et s’abstient d’annexer le Groenland…

06/01/2026 1 FR

Provider

Oddo BHF

Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.

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Analysts

Bruno Cavalier

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ODDO : 10 graphiques d’analyse : un pipeline de projets toujours solide

Nous avons sélectionné 10 graphiques afin d’identifier les principaux drivers du secteur. Les Capex sont attendus en repli de 1.5% en 2026 après un rebond de 70% depuis le point bas de 2020. Cette baisse proviendra essentiellement du marché US (plus forte discipline compte tenu de points morts plus élevés). Nous privilégions SBM Offshore (Surperformance, OC 45 €), Vallourec (Surperformance, OC 22 € vs 20.8 €) et Technip Energies (Surperformance, OC 49 €) et adoptons une opinion plus prudente sur TechnipFMC (Neutre vs Surperformance, OC 56 $) dont le cours a été multiplié par plus de 8 depuis l...

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ODDO : 10 analysis charts: a pipeline of projects that remains solid

For the start of 2026, we have selected ten charts to identify the sector's main drivers. Capex is expected to fall by 1.5% in 2026 after a 70% rebound from the low point of 2020. This reduction will mainly come from the US market (greater discipline due to higher breakeven points). At this point in the year, we prefer SBM Offshore (Outperform, target price € 45), Vallourec (Outperform, target price € 22 vs € 20.8) and Technip Energies (Outperform, target price € 49) and have adopted a more cautious stance on TechnipFMC (Neutral vs Outperform target price $ 56), on which the share price has in...

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ODDO : Shift to more favourable cycle to ease AI pressure on sector valuations

While we do not deny the uncertainties and risks associated with artificial intelligence (pricing pressures, organisational change, etc.), we remain constructive on this issue, given the significant volume opportunities in prospect for the sector with the integration of agentic AI. Moreover, improving growth momentum in 2026 should reduce pressure on sector valuations (discount >30% vs Stoxx 600 vs a premium of 10% four years ago). On this basis, we have upgraded Bechtle (Outperform vs Neutral), downgraded Nagarro (Neutral vs Outperform) and prefer Capgemini, Alten, Wavestone and ALSO Holding.

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Trump et quelques autres points chauds à surveiller en 2026

ODDO : 10 graphiques d’analyse : un pipeline de projets toujours solide

ODDO : 10 analysis charts: a pipeline of projects that remains solid

ODDO : Shift to more favourable cycle to ease AI pressure on sector valuations

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